The recent U.S. strike on Venezuela has impacted guerrilla factions operating along the country’s border with Colombia, sparking concerns of potential betrayal by Venezuelan leaders and escalating the risk of broader conflict if U.S. troops intervene, according to local security analysts.
Following the Jan. 3 attacks, there have been reports of increased guerrilla movements on both sides of the border. Experts suggest that the National Liberation Army (ELN), the region’s most influential guerrilla organization, has been shutting down some camps in Venezuela due to fears that regime officials may disclose their locations to U.S. forces, prompting potential strikes.
Jorge Mantilla, an expert on armed conflicts and national security from Bogotá, highlighted that the ELN is adjusting its security measures and social control systems in Venezuelan communities where their leaders are present. Additionally, the group has halted training activities in Venezuela, including plans to establish a special forces unit with Venezuelan military support.
Despite uncertainties surrounding future developments, Mantilla noted that the ELN had foreseen a U.S. offensive in Venezuela. In previous instances, ELN representatives had warned Venezuelan authorities about potential traitors within the military ranks, suggesting an anticipation of external aggression.
The recent U.S. actions could provide the ELN with an opportunity to expand its influence and transform into a regional guerrilla force, particularly if the U.S. military presence in Venezuela becomes a reality or if internal divisions within the Venezuelan government emerge. This strategic shift could position the ELN as a symbol of resistance across Latin America, transcending national boundaries.
Furthermore, a leader of a rival guerrilla faction along the Venezuela-Colombia border, Ivan Mordisco, urged unity among guerrilla groups to confront the perceived common threat posed by the U.S. However, his appeal may face skepticism within the guerrilla community due to his lack of credibility and legal status as a wanted criminal in Colombia.
Gerson Arias, a researcher at Colombia’s Ideas for Peace Foundation, emphasized the ELN’s strategic interests in maintaining its presence in Colombia and Venezuela, given its control over border territories rich in natural resources. The ELN’s historical alignment with Venezuela, dating back to the Hugo Chávez era, underscores its ideological affinity with the current regime and commitment to defending Venezuela’s political revolution.
As international discussions on combating guerrilla groups intensify, including recent talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro, local advocates like Eliana Paola Zafra in Cúcuta, Colombia, emphasize the need for holistic peacebuilding approaches that prioritize community empowerment and human rights protection over militarized responses.