Europe is facing a critical shortage of jet fuel in the coming weeks due to ongoing disruptions in global energy supplies caused by the Iran war, according to the head of the International Energy Agency. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, cautioned that the continent may have only about six weeks of jet fuel reserves left, highlighting the looming risk of flight cancellations if supply routes remain blocked.
Birol emphasized the unprecedented nature of the current global energy crisis, attributing it to the severe disruption in the critical oil artery of the Strait of Hormuz. He described the situation as the largest energy crisis ever encountered, with nearly 20% of the world’s traded oil passing through the strait under normal circumstances. The ongoing restrictions have led to price hikes and supply chain constraints in fuel markets.
The ramifications of the crisis extend beyond aviation, with Birol warning of broader economic impacts such as escalating fuel prices and slowing global growth. He highlighted the potential for countries, particularly weaker economies, to experience stagnant growth or even recession if the crisis persists. Developing nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to bear the brunt of the economic distress caused by energy shocks.
Despite the eventual end of the conflict, Birol projected a slow recovery process, indicating that more than 80 crucial energy assets in the region have been damaged, with a significant portion facing severe impacts. He estimated that it could take up to two years for the energy infrastructure to fully recover to pre-war levels.
Looking ahead, Birol cautioned that the disruption could reshape global energy systems in the long term, potentially expediting the transition to alternative energy sources like nuclear power. However, the immediate concern remains the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to avert a widespread crisis that could impact daily life in Europe and beyond, starting with grounded flights.
The IEA chief stressed that the consequences of the crisis will be felt globally, emphasizing that no country is immune to its effects. The situation underscores the urgency of resolving the energy supply disruptions to mitigate the far-reaching impacts on economies and societies worldwide.