A political shift is unfolding in Bihar after the recent Rajya Sabha elections, with indications favoring the BJP. The focus is on three Congress MLAs who supported the BJP candidate despite the party having six legislators in the state.
The situation is complicated by the absence of leadership and discipline within the Congress Legislature Party. This scenario could lead to potential internal rifts within the party.
If these MLAs officially switch sides, they may not face disqualification under the anti-defection law. Another Congress MLA is also under scrutiny, raising the possibility of up to four legislators breaking away from the party.
The BJP currently holds 89 MLAs and is supported by 28 allies, totaling 117 seats—just five short of the majority mark in the Assembly without the Janata Dal (United). If four Congress MLAs join the BJP, the ruling coalition would be within one seat of a majority even without JDU’s support, potentially reducing the BJP’s reliance on its ally.
However, the national dynamics are different, with the Centre depending on JDU’s 12 MPs to sustain the ruling alliance in Parliament. In the March 16 Rajya Sabha elections, the NDA secured all five seats in Bihar and two seats in Odisha due to cross-voting. Bihar’s NDA candidates included Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and BJP national president Nitin Nabin.