Nuclear experts are raising concerns that the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, initially aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, may have inadvertently increased the likelihood of Iran developing a nuclear bomb.
According to two nuclear experts with experience in past U.S. efforts to impose sanctions on Iran, the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons was previously constrained more by diplomatic considerations than technical limitations. However, the dynamics have shifted following the recent military actions, including airstrikes on Iranian cities, targeted killings of top officials, and significant damage to Iran’s military assets.
The experts emphasize that the focus on preventing Iran from reaching “weapons-grade” uranium enrichment levels may have obscured the fact that Iran does not necessarily need the same level of enrichment as advanced nuclear powers to build a potent nuclear weapon. Physicist Steve Fetter, a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control, points out that Iran’s existing stockpile of 60 percent enriched material is already suitable for producing nuclear weapons.
Furthermore, plasma physicist Tara Drozdenko, who has expertise in nuclear weapons issues, highlights that Iran’s decision to halt enrichment at 60 percent was driven more by political considerations than technical constraints. She notes that Iran could have continued enriching uranium to higher levels if it had intended to do so.
With Iran already possessing significant enriched uranium at 60 percent, the experts warn that the “breakout time” for Iran to reach weapons-grade enrichment is relatively short. Despite previous military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, experts caution that destroying centrifuges alone may not be sufficient to halt Iran’s progress towards higher enrichment levels, especially if existing nuclear material remains recoverable.
The experts suggest that Iran’s motivations for its nuclear program have been influenced by a desire to leverage diplomacy rather than solely pursuing nuclear weapons. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) provided Iran with sanctions relief in exchange for limitations on its nuclear activities, but the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 disrupted this diplomatic framework.
The experts stress that the recent military actions against Iran, coupled with uncertainties surrounding the country’s nuclear infrastructure and capabilities, could inadvertently push Iran towards reactivating its nuclear program. They caution that attempts to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities through military means may backfire and instead reinforce Iran’s resolve to pursue nuclear armament.
In conclusion, the experts highlight the complex geopolitical implications of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran and its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, underscoring the need for a nuanced approach to address the escalating tensions in the region.