Seven rounds of the 2026 Candidates tournament have been completed, marking the halfway point in the competition to determine the challenger for the World Chess Championship currently held by Gukesh.
A notable shift in trends compared to the 2024 Candidates in Canada has been observed. In the previous edition, the women’s category was dominated by Tan Zhongyi, while the Open category saw a closely contested battle culminating in Gukesh securing the title with a drawn game between Fabiano Caruana and Ian Nepomniachtchi.
In contrast, the dynamics have changed in 2026. The Open category appears to be nearly decided, with Javokhir Sindarov establishing a significant lead over the competition. On the other hand, the women’s section remains highly competitive, with Vaishali Rameshbabu’s consecutive victories placing her just half a point behind Anna Muzychuk.
In the Open category, Praggnanandhaa faces the challenge of needing multiple wins in the remaining games to stay in contention. However, even a strong finish may not be sufficient unless Sindarov’s performance falters in the latter part of the tournament. This scenario indicates diminishing hopes for India in the Open section, pointing towards a potential Sindarov versus Gukesh showdown for the World Championship at the end of 2026.
Conversely, the women’s section presents an optimistic outlook. Vaishali’s recent wins have elevated her chances in the title race, setting the stage for a possible clash between Vaishali and Ju Wenjun, akin to the India versus China narrative seen in 2024 between Gukesh and Ding Liren.
Meanwhile, Divya Deshmukh’s missed opportunities, particularly against Kateryna Lagno, have proven costly. Despite showing promise initially, Divya’s form in the tournament has fluctuated, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of chess competitions.
Sindarov’s dominance in the Open category has been a defining feature of the tournament, with the Uzbek player maintaining a strong performance and potentially setting records for points accumulated in a single Candidates tournament.
While the dream of an all-Indian World Championship final appears to be fading, the prospect of a challenging showdown between Gukesh and Sindarov looms large, shaping the narrative of the tournament as it progresses.