A year and a half after Canadians began avoiding their trips to the United States, some are now starting to travel there again. In June, the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. increased by 3.2% compared to the same month last year, as per the latest data from Statistics Canada. This marks the third consecutive month of growth, following a 9.5% rise in May and a 1.4% uptick in April.
The rise in inbound travel from the U.S. to Canada was primarily driven by more Canadians returning via car, showing a 5.2% increase from the previous June. Conversely, air travel saw a 3.8% decrease in return trips from the States in June compared to the previous year.
However, the increase in car travel does not bring Canadian travel to the U.S. back to pre-pandemic levels. Although some optimism is brewing in the U.S. tourism sector, it may not translate into significant business growth in the near future.
Compared to June 2024, when tensions over trade wars and annexation threats led Canadians to cancel their U.S. travel plans, return travel from the U.S. by Canadians last month plummeted by a substantial 28.7%.
Wayne Smith, director of Toronto Metropolitan University’s Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research, views the recent uptick as a gradual “normalization” of travel to the U.S. by Canadians. He believes that the current travel rate is the “new normal” due to consistently lower numbers of Canadians visiting the U.S. over the past 18 months.
Kristy Kennedy, vice-president of marketing and operations at the North Country Chamber of Commerce, notes a slight increase in Canadian travel near the Quebec border in New York State. Some local businesses have observed more Canadian visitors, signaling a potential revival in cross-border travel.
Amir Eylon, president of travel consultancy Longwoods International, suggests that promotional campaigns targeting Canadians, such as discounts and favorable exchange rates, may have contributed to the recent surge in travel. Factors like rising jet fuel costs and the World Cup hosted by Canada, the U.S., and Mexico could also have influenced travel decisions.
While there is cautious optimism in the tourism industry with three consecutive months of growth in cross-border travel, Smith remains skeptical about the impact on U.S. tourism businesses. He highlights that the majority of recent travel has been by car, whereas longer and higher-spending trips typically come from air travel.
In conclusion, shifting travel patterns and economic factors pose challenges for the U.S. in regaining Canadian travelers, according to Smith. The weak Canadian dollar and evolving travel preferences may hinder a swift recovery in U.S. tourism.